If games of football were won on stats, Manchester City would have an unassailable lead at the top of the table.
They aren’t won in the realm of analytics, though. Games are won on only one stat, the scoreline – and every other stat is there only to show the different ways teams try to skin the cat.
It’s just as well for Chelsea, too. Last night they may not have won at Anfield, but they certainly got what they came for – the draw was as good for them as a win would have been, especially as both Arsenal and Tottenham failed to win. But the stats don’t make great reading. Or they wouldn’t if they cared about such a thing.
Antonio Conte’s side had less than 40% possession, made about 240 fewer passes than their counterparts in red. And even then, only 68% of those passes actually found their intended destinations, compared to 80% for Liverpool.
The problem with stats, though, is that when they’re taken as indicators of anything at all, they have to be thoroughly explained.
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That David Luiz, Cesar Azpilicueta and Gary Cahill made three tackles between, for example, them looks at odds with the other stats spoken about above. Yet it was their exemplary positioning and the fact that the majority of Chelsea’s 24 tackles were made by N’Golo Kante (14) further up the pitch that made the difference in the game.
The stats don’t tell the whole story: they tell of how Liverpool dominated the ball, but not how they rarely looked threatening. They tell of how Chelsea didn’t really have to do much, but not about how well organised they were, and that’s why they were required to do less actual, active defending.
The reason why Chelsea are the favourites for the title doesn’t just have to do with their lead over the rest of the table. They are nine points clear, but Leicester won the league by 10 points, and they never really had the luxury of being called champions-elect – they were underdogs right up until they were mathematically champions.
The reason Chelsea are the favourites isn’t because of those stats, but because of the reason the stats are as they are: their organisation and their relentlessness.
To be nine points clear is one thing, but to be nine points clear and to show no signs of dropping points in bulk is entirely another. To have a defence as solid as Chelsea’s – they have conceded as many goals as Tottenham, but both are in a field of their own in that category – means they are almost unbeatable.
And that situation is almost unbearable. Take Tottenham, for example. They haven’t conceded many goals all season, but one of the problems of being so good in defence is that often those teams aren’t so good in attack. Their ability to keep them out but not to score so many early in the season led to far too many draws. That’s the only reason they are nine points back right now, having lost fewer games than Chelsea all season.
But now Chelsea are in a position similar to the one there were in last night.
At Anfield, once they had scored, they had no need to attack. Liverpool had to find two goals in order to ruin Chelsea’s night, not just one. Because draws against their big rivals are enough now, as long as they don’t start losing to the other teams below them. They are not like Tottenham at the start of the season who are struggling from too many draws and not enough goals. Chelsea have almost as many goals as they need to win the title.
Sure, it doesn’t stop now. It’s not over, and Chelsea have plenty of games left to win. But they can now start thinking about playing within themselves. They can now think about playing the percentages – course management, they call it in golf. Antonio Conte doesn’t need to set his team out to go for broke in search of goals, just to get enough to fend off the rest of the pack. And his relentlessness will see them through.
Conte is like the man who gets up every morning without fail before sunrise to for a run along the sea front. He’s like the man who will eat the exact same bowl of porridge every morning, the exact same chicken sandwich for lunch every afternoon. He is relentless, he is organised, and he will never stop being organised. And he won’t allow his players to either.
Football games aren’t won on stats, they are won by the things that create the stats – the players and their style of play. If you want to beat Chelsea, don’t out-pass them or out-shoot them, out-organise them. At the moment, no one can. It’s that, not the stats, that make Chelsea such strong favourites.
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