The beauty of midseason college football bowl projections is the extent to which small movements in the rankings can affect them. For instance, Tennessee's 24–17 win over Alabama had ramifications up and down the bowl schedule—knocking the Crimson Tide from the playoff field and elevating the Volunteers in their place.
However, bowl projections also have a way of bringing into the cold light teams in the midst of complete collapse. Wait until you see where Oklahoma is in this field after its blowout loss to South Carolina, or USC after its complete meltdown at Maryland.
As usual, the projections are determined by using the AP Poll and College Football Reference's Simple Rating System as guides. Conference tie-ins have been observed, but with .500 teams in short supply, gluttonous Power Four conferences (namely the Big Ten and SEC) ate a handful of slots nominally reserved for other leagues.
Without further ado, here's how the bowl picture might look if the season ended today, with some commentary at the end.
GAME
LOCATION
DATE
PROJECTED MATCHUP
Celebration Bowl
Atlanta
Dec. 14
Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
Camellia Bowl
Montgomery, Ala.
Dec. 14
Rutgers vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
Dec. 17
Texas State vs. Sam Houston
Boca Raton Bowl
Boca Raton, Fla.
Dec. 18
Ohio vs. Georgia Southern
LA Bowl
Inglewood, Calif.
Dec. 18
Utah vs. UNLV
New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans
Dec. 19
Western Kentucky vs. Lousiana-Monroe
Cure Bowl
Orlando
Dec. 20
Minnesota vs. James Madison
Gasparilla Bowl
Tampa
Dec. 20
Boston College vs. Arkansas
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 1
Columbus
Dec. 20
No. 11 BYU at No. 6 Ohio State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 2
Austin
Dec. 21
No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Texas
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 3
University Park, Pa.
Dec. 21
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Penn State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 4
Knoxville, Tenn.
Dec. 21
No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Tennessee
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Conway, S.C.
Dec. 23
Buffalo vs. Coastal Carolina
Potato Bowl
Boise, Idaho
Dec. 23
Northern Illinois vs. Colorado State
Hawaii Bowl
Honolulu
Dec. 24
Liberty vs. Tulane
Detroit Bowl
Detroit
Dec. 26
Maryland vs. Toledo
Rate Bowl
Phoenix
Dec. 26
Iowa vs. San Diego State
68 Ventures Bowl
Mobile, Ala.
Dec. 26
Michigan State vs. Marshall
Birmingham Bowl
Birmingham
Dec. 27
Oklahoma vs. North Texas
Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth
Dec. 27
Michigan vs. Kentucky
Liberty Bowl
Memphis
Dec. 27
TCU vs. South Carolina
Holiday Bowl
San Diego
Dec. 27
Virginia Tech vs. Arizona State
Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas
Dec. 27
Missouri vs. Washington State
Fenway Bowl
Boston
Dec. 28
Memphis vs. Virginia
Pinstripe Bowl
Bronx, N.Y.
Dec. 28
Wisconsin vs. Syracuse
New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque
Dec. 28
Arkansas State vs. San Jose State
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Orlando
Dec. 28
Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech
Arizona Bowl
Tucson
Dec. 28
Eastern Michigan vs. Fresno State
Military Bowl
Annapolis, Md.
Dec. 28
Louisville vs. Navy
Alamo Bowl
San Antonio
Dec. 28
Washington vs. Kansas State
Independence Bowl
Shreveport, La.
Dec. 28
Colorado vs. Army
Music City Bowl
Nashville
Dec. 30
Illinois vs. Ole Miss
ReliaQuest Bowl
Tampa
Dec. 31
Notre Dame vs. Alabama
Sun Bowl
El Paso, Texas
Dec. 31
Oregon State vs. SMU
Citrus Bowl
Orlando
Dec. 31
Indiana vs. Texas A&M
Texas Bowl
Houston
Dec. 31
Florida vs. Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, Ariz.
Dec. 31
No. 12 Boise State or No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 4 Iowa State
Peach Bowl
Atlanta
Jan. 1
No. 10 Clemson or No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Georgia
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, Calif.
Jan. 1
No. 9 LSU or No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Oregon
Sugar Bowl
New Orleans
Jan. 1
No. 11 BYU or No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Miami
Gator Bowl
Jacksonville
Jan. 2
Pittsburgh vs. Vanderbilt
First Responder Bowl
Dallas
Jan. 3
USC vs. Connecticut
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Charlotte
Jan. 3
Nebraska vs. Duke
Bahamas Bowl
Nassau
Jan. 4
Western Michigan vs. Jacksonville State
Orange Bowl
Miami Gardens, Fla.
Jan. 9
Sugar Bowl winner vs. Peach Bowl winner
Cotton Bowl
Arlington, Texas
Jan. 10
Fiesta Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner
National Championship
Atlanta
Jan. 20
Orange Bowl winner vs. Cotton Bowl winner
Notable Potential Bowl Matchups
Note Jackson State snagging Florida A&M's place in the Celebration Bowl after a 35–21 win over the Rattlers Saturday… Sam Houston and Texas State (Frisco Bowl) have spent a lot of time together over the years; the two schools helped found the Lone Star Conference way back in 1931… UNLV and Utah (LA Bowl) were in the Mountain West together from 1999 to 2010, and the WAC from 1996 to '98… Louisiana-Monroe and Western Kentucky locked horns in the Sun Belt from 2009 to '13… BYU and Ohio State, potential CFP opponents, have met three times in bowl games (the Buckeyes won all three matchups)… Depending on whether you consider CFP first-round matchups bowl games, we could be in line for a) the first bowl game in Ohio since the 1961 Aviation Bowl in Dayton and b) the first bowl game in Pennsylvania since the Liberty Bowl left Philadelphia in 1963… Tennessee and LSU are not scheduled to play this year; the Volunteers won their last meeting in 2022… Iowa and San Diego State (Rate Bowl) played in the 1986 Holiday Bowl; hilariously, the final score was 39–38 (the Hawkeyes won)… This would be Notre Dame and Alabama's (ReliaQuest Bowl) ninth matchup; the Fighting Irish lead the series 5-3 and the two teams will begin a home-and-home in 2029… SMU would be the first Texas-based team to appear in the Sun Bowl since TCU in 1998… Duke and Nebraska (Duke's Mayo Bowl) played in the 1955 Orange Bowl, won 34–7 by the Blue Devils.
