Chelsea have been hunting for a 20+ goal a season striker since Diego Costa left the club back in 2017, forking out huge fees on strikers such as Romelu Lukaku, with the hope of acquiring a consistent goalscorer.
In their opening game of the season, despite losing 2-0 to Manchester City, Chelsea actually had a higher xG (expected goals), failing to convert their chances, as striker Nicolas Jackson had the biggest chance for the Blues which was saved at point-blank range by Ederson.
Victor Osimhen has been one of the main striker names linked with a move to Stamford Bridge this summer, with consistent updates from Fabrizio Romano stating the club's interest in the Nigerian forward.
Osimhen made 32 appearances in all competitions for Napoli last season, scoring 17 goals, although the Blues could perhaps have their eyes on a dream alternative.
Chelsea transfer news
According to reports from journalist Ben Jacobs, Chelsea could return in the market for Aston Villa striker, Jhon Duran, who Villa are still open to selling for the right price. The club are said to value him at around £35-40m, according to Fabrizio Romano.
The 20-year-old scored against another team linked with his signature this summer, West Ham United, at the weekend, to help Villa snatch a 2-1 victory on their opening fixture of the Premier League campaign.
Duran made 37 appearances for Villa in all competitions last season, scoring eight goals, and totaling 1,103 minutes played, a large portion of those minutes coming in the UEFA Conference League (443).
Chelsea current striker options
The Blues currently have Nicolas Jackson, signed from Villarreal last season for a fee of around £32m, Marc Guiu, the 18-year-old signed from Barcelona for around £5m, and Christopher Nkunku, who despite appearing more regularly playing off of a striker, can also play up front, having arrived back in 2023 for £52m.
Jackson made 44 appearances for the Blues in all competitions last season, scoring 17 goals, and providing six assists in 3,534 minutes played, turning out to be an excellent debut season for the Senegal international.
However, with the injury problems of Nkunku last season, Jackson was heavily relied upon week in, week out, and an addition such as Guiu despite only being 18-years-old, could offer another body in attacking areas to help the squad depth.
Stats (per 90 mins)
Jackson
Nkunku
Broja
Goals
0.43
0.49
0.22
Assists
0.15
0.00
0.11
xG
0.60
0.47
0.40
Progressive Carries
2.25
2.04
2.17
Progressive Passes
2.15
3.88
1.33
Shots Total
2.58
3.28
1.98
Shots on Target
1.18
1.48
0.44
Goals/shot
0.17
0.15
0.11
Shot-Creating Actions
3.05
2.65
1.50
Touches (Att Pen)
4.86
5.51
6.50
Aerials Won
1.13
2.04
1.67
Another striker at the club, who has just left on loan to Ipswich, is Armando Broja. He has been included in this comparison to show what attributes Chelsea were missing upfront last season, when they had a strike force configured by these three names.
Whilst Chelsea were creating a solid amount of xG between their forwards, Jackson wasn't finishing at a high rate (was below his xG), as was Broja when given the chance, and as mentioned, Nkunku (who did perform above his xG) was often injured.
Expected Goals (xG) is a metric designed to measure the probability of a shot resulting in a goal.
This set of strikers are also not known for their aerial threat, Nkunku winning the most aerials per 90 with 2.04, but still losing 1.22 aerials per 90, which is expected for the Frenchman who is only 5 foot 9 and isn't the physically imposing type.
This lack of box threat and clinical finisher did hurt the Blues at times last season, and after seeing it again on the opening game week of this campaign, Chelsea will be keen to address it in the market whilst they still can.
Duran vs Osimhen comparison
This leads us on nicely to the striker links at Chelsea currently, having already discussed two primary targets for the Blues, Osimhen from Napoli, and Duran from Villa.
Both of these players are seen as clinical finishers, Osimhen proving this over a much longer and more esteemed career so far, but Duran showing early glimpses, even having his left foot named a "weapon" by talent scout Jacek Kulig.
Stats (per 90 mins)
Duran
Osimhen
Goals
0.61
0.62
Assists
0.00
0.11
xG
0.42
0.65
Shots Total
3.83
3.69
Shots on Target
1.91
1.53
Goals/shot
0.16
0.14
G-xG
+0.28
-0.03
Shot-Creating Actions
2.12
2.47
Touches (Att Pen)
5.05
6.83
Aerials Won
2.73
1.81
Both of these strikers add exactly what Chelsea are looking for, a box-occupant striker, who gets touches in the penalty area, uses their physicality to bully defenders, wins aerial duels and puts the ball in the back of the net at a high rate.
Duran has shown in his limited minutes that he is extremely keen to pull the trigger, averaging 3.83 shots per 90 and averaging 1.91 of those shots on target per 90, both more than Osimhen in this metric.
The 20-year-old also scored at a rate of 0.16 goals/shot, 0.02 more than Osimhen per 90, and overachieved his xG by 0.28 per 90 last season, which shows the level of clinical finishing Duran can offer at such a young age.
The way Duran uses his body to protect the ball is reminiscent of some of the best and most successful Premier League strikers, their physicality being an important factor for such a competitive league.
His ability to use a stiff arm to hold off his man, bump his back into defenders to create half a yard, and then unleash a rocket of a strike on his lethal left foot is a recipe for success as a striker in the Premier League.
Despite only being 6 foot 1 (still tall), Duran also dominates in the air, having an athletic and powerful leap to meet the ball. The Colombian averages 2.73 aerials won per 90, and this is whilst having some slight timing issues when attacking the ball. If he can improve on that aspect, these numbers would only increase.
As Chelsea continues to build out their talented young squad, that missing piece remains a consistent 20+ goal striker, and in the final week of the transfer window, many would be surprised if the Blues didn't walk away with a forward line addition.
Whether it is Osimhen or Duran, either one would provide Chelsea with the correct striker profile to complete Maresca's forward tool set, having Jackson for certain game styles, but also having a more clinical and physical archetype to turn to, in games that require this sort of player.
Instead of Osimhen: Chelsea plot hijack for Drogba-esque £50m striker
The Blues are ready to finish their summer spending with a flourish…
ByAngus Sinclair Aug 22, 2024
