A rookie quarterback has never won the Super Bowl, so when we’re talking about this season and expectations, this is a bit of a slower burn. This season is about the start of something and, especially when we’re talking about the 2024 campaign, the quality of an economic assessment made by a handful of different general managers. One could argue, as I have here, that as many as four of the six quarterbacks selected in the first round are not expected to be immediate starters. Indeed, Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy all enter camp either clearly entrenched in a No. 2 position or with quality veteran competition (or some combination of those things), alongside a coach and a general manager who need to produce results and cannot wait for a rookie quarterback to develop.
So let’s keep that in mind as we enter this year’s rendition of realistic expectations for our rookie passers. New this year is a deeper background on the play-callers, which should help flesh out some of our reasoning and inform what we know about each individual situation as we head into training camp.
1. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (No. 1 pick)
Top weapons: WR DJ Moore, WR Keenan Allen, WR Rome Odunze, TE Cole Kmet, RB D’Andre Swift, RB Khalil Herbert
Coordinator: Shane Waldron
Coordinator’s resume:
• Play-caller, 2021 to ’23 (Seattle Seahawks)
• 14th, 10th, 11th, respectively, in net passing yards per attempt
• 31st, 15th, 17th, respectively, in passing attempts per game
• Run/pass ratios: 413/495 (’21), 429/573(’22), 382/575(’23)
Projection: 65% completion rate, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 3,727 yards
Why: Waldron is a gifted offensive coordinator who, alongside Panthers head coach Dave Canales, led an offensive renaissance in Seattle that segmented quarterback Geno Smith’s strengths and built a playbook around his favorite throws and his strong suits. Despite Pete Carroll’s penchant for an incredibly balanced run/pass ratio, the Seahawks entrusted Waldron to unleash the team’s core of wide receivers. By Smith’s last year with Waldron, the Seahawks’ run-pass ratio was skewed beyond that of Russell Wilson during his final year with Carroll.
The baseline comp I used for this was Jared Goff’s sophomore season. These numbers are mostly in line with Goff’s first season with Sean McVay. Waldron was on that staff and would have had an active role in handing over the offense to Goff in very small pieces. I ratcheted up the number of interceptions Williams would throw versus Goff because I think he will have more freedom. I also think Williams’s completion percentage will be better than Goff’s because Waldron has been excellent during his latter years in Seattle building in high-upside, short-yardage completions.
